Nonie Trainer and Sanskruti Mate

How can we collate a picture of the sale or return model and use it to inform better sustainability practices in the Australian bookselling and publishing industry?

Keywords: artificial intelligence (AI), Brunswick Bound, carbon footprint, print on demand (PoD), pulping, sale or return (SoR), sustainable practices

Introduction

As concerns over sustainability in the combined bookselling and publishing industry grow, increased focus is being paid to the sale or return (SoR) model, which has been the dominant model in the Australian market for decades. SoR allows booksellers to return unsold stock to publishers for credit or refund, lessening the booksellers’ financial exposure and risk. However, it comes with a significant environmental footprint. By researching, analysing and collating data on book returns in Australia, we can explore the scope of the SoR model and inform better sustainability practices in the Australian industry.

The SoR model

Publishing involves many levels of risk at both the acquiring and selling stages, which puts pressure on the economic viability and sustainability of the entire industry. Returns provide support for publishers, booksellers and distributors, who are the most vulnerable to those risks. Booksellers receive additional financial security and in turn, publishers can take larger chances with titles they’re acquiring, knowing that booksellers can buy with confidence. It keeps printers printing, warehouses full and freight moving between businesses in the publishing sector.

The downside of the SoR model is that returned books are often pulped and then recycled or sent to landfills. This generates excess waste, as well as carbon emissions from repeatedly transporting stock.

Without comprehensive forecasting tools and hard data, managing the cycle of returns will continue to be a challenge. Though Nielsen BookScan, the industry’s only collective depository of sales data, provides some insight, gaps remain in publishers’ and booksellers’ ability to determine market viability and accurately predict print runs that would be most unwasteful.

Furthermore, given that publishers, distributors and booksellers have reasons for not sharing their SoR data, there is a lack of transparency regarding returns in the Australian industry. Without this information, it is not possible to concretely understand and address the impact of the current model of operations. There is also a significant gap in existing research on the extent to which other bookselling models are feasible and scalable for small and mid-sized booksellers in the Australian context. Little empirical evidence exists in relation to the long-term environmental and economic trade-offs of minimising or eliminating SoR practices.

Alternative models, technology and industry initiatives

Suggested alternatives to the current SoR model include print on demand (PoD) services, in which a book is printed only after it has been sold. PoD has the power to align inventory with actual demand, subsequently reducing overproduction and the number of returns. Likewise, short run digital printing (SRDP) produces smaller quantities of books closer to the point of sale than traditional offset printing. Both PoD and SRDP address the environmental impact of stock transportation by localising printing and simplifying supply chains, better accommodating Australia’s widely dispersed markets.

Technology is central to much of the discussion regarding sustainability within the Australian bookselling industry. Baverstock and Bowen, for instance, emphasises the importance of software such as inventory forecasting and data management. Programs such as DemandSens, a forecasting platform based on artificial intelligence (AI), can limit returns and minimise waste by improving product order accuracy.

However, many of Australia’s smaller booksellers either do not have access to these new technological improvements or are unable to fully utilise them. A more comprehensive understanding of the full range of demand forecasting tools that are being developed and used, as well as how key players are managing returns data, is an essential first step in moving towards sustainable bookselling models.

When it comes to exploring more sustainable models for bookselling, industry body BookPeople, formerly the Australian Booksellers Association (APA), has recommended rethinking the SoR model and working collaboratively with publishers to reduce returns—for example, by increasing pre-orders, sharing demand data, and favouring firm sale arrangements for lower-demand or routine front list titles. These recommendations are set out in BookPeople’s sustainability paper, Towards a Sustainable Bookselling Future. Additionally, the Australian Publishers Association(APA) published a comprehensive survey of 27 publishers in 2023, assessing how sustainability was being addressed and which areas needed more support (including returns). On an international scale, the European and International Booksellers Foundation (EIBF) has launched a project called RISE Bookselling , which has published a series of research papers to close information gaps specifically regarding returns, including a comprehensive report on returns across seven countries of different market sizes. Research from RISE has outlined actionable tools and strategies for booksellers to become more sustainable.

Creating a picture of book returns in Australia

This case study collates and aligns existing data under the investigative framework used in project RISE to generate a report on returns in the Australian publishing industry. Through this lens, we are able to create a picture of the scope of the Australian publishing and bookselling industry, while locating areas where the data is under-reported or missing altogether. By bringing to light the scarcity of information within the Australian market, we hope to prompt stakeholders to be more transparent in their publicly reported data to work towards more effective sustainability practices.

1. Ensuring environmental risks are properly identified, prioritised and managed.
2. Establishing sound environmental policies and promoting best practice in all areas of […] business.
3. Minimising environmental impact and reducing or (where possible) preventing pollution.
4. Minimising waste production by reduced [sic] consumption and developing effective waste and recycling management.
5. Collaborating with key suppliers to promote environmentally responsible procurement of goods and services.
6. Actively pursuing continual improvement in our environment management system.
7. Complying with all applicable environmental policy, laws and regulations.
8. Providing all employees with updated information and training in changes to environment management systems and work practices.
9. Developing and implementing environmental programs that set measurable and reportable objectives and targets.

Scope of the Australian industry

Book production and sales puts an approximated $2 billion into the Australian economy annually. According to Nielsen BookData’s snapshot, 69 million books were sold in 2024 and 757,460 unique ISBNs were bought by Australian readers. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) classifies publishing and distribution separately under multiple relevant Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) codes, however in the natural function of the Australian publishing industry, these distinctions are somewhat arbitrary instead of functionally useful in quantifying exact numbers.

Publishing

According to IBISWorld there are 905 businesses working in the Australian publishing landscape. The Australian publishing industry is made up of two separate sectors: educational and trade. Educational book sales make up around 41% of books sold; adult non-fiction 27%, adult fiction 14% and children’s books 8.2%. (Typesetter notes: add graphs for this data. See this graph https://www.ibisworld.com/australia/industry/book-publishing/171/.) The big 5 publishing houses (Penguin Random House Australia, Hachette, Allen & Unwin, HarperCollins and Pan Macmillan) account for around 70% of the industry.

Distribution

Australian businesses functioning under the umbrella of distribution have the potential to be classified under three codes, depending on their primary function. These codes pertain to book wholesale, freighting services and warehousing. For the purpose of having clear data, only statistics classified under the ANZSIC code for book wholesale will be considered. According to IBISWorld, there are a total of 278 book and magazine wholesale businesses operating in Australia. Among these, there are three major players who are all internationally owned: HarperCollins’ Harper Entertainment Distribution Services, Hachette’s Alliance Distribution Services and PRH’s Penguin Random House Distribution.

Retailers

Across Australia there are 2,465 bookstores in business. Books are sold from three different categories of retailers, according to IBISWorld: brick-and-mortar bookshops, online retailers, and newsagents. However, a more useful way of categorising book retailers is by scale: independent retailers at 26%, chain and online platforms at 44%, and discount department stores at 29.8%. There are three models of sales being used in Australia. These are SoR, firm sale and consignment. There is no publicly available information regarding what percentage of each model is being used, although booksellers most commonly talk about engaging with the SoR model.

Returns

Figures regarding returns are heavily guarded by publishing houses within the Australian industry. Available information estimates the figure to sit around 15%. In the APA’s survey, 85% of publishers accepted returns. As for units sent back into the market after returns, 35% of publishers put 80% of returned stock back into circulation.

Pulping

Statistics on pulping returned books are central to guiding the sustainability efforts of the Australian industry but there is no hard data on units pulped each year. The only available data comes from the survey of Australian publishers undertaken by the APA, in which 30% of publishers said they do not pulp returns. In this same survey, 13% of publishers said they pulped 70% of returns. All damaged returns were sent for pulping, with none being sent to landfills.

Information gaps

In synthesising data on the Australian publishing industry, using the framework of the EIBF returns report, it is clear that there are gaps in the information available. Hard data is almost non-existent on units printed, delivered, returned and pulped. There is no database that collates all of this information from Australian publishing houses or distributors, and reporting on returns and pulping is not required by law. In the absence of legislation, stakeholders have little incentive to clearly and publicly report on their waste generated, and without hard data it is difficult for the industry, or peak bodies, to identify where and how interventions would be most valuable.

Sustainable inventory management at Brunswick Bound

This case study homes in on a specific local bookseller in order to consider how they incorporate sustainability as part of their business model. Brunswick Bound is an established independent bookstore in Melbourne with a curated offering, and commitment to community. They draw on more than 15 years of professional bookselling experience and combine knowledge of traditional bookselling with available modern tools.

An interview with Megan O’Brien, owner and manager at Brunswick Bound, revealed a nuanced understanding of inventory management. Key points include:

• Decision-making process (orders are influenced by monthly sales meetings with publishers, feedback from customers, popular literary trends, and staff feedback. There are also external cultural influences to consider, such as celebrity book clubs and their recommendations. This provides Brunswick Bound with a unique opportunity to react more intensely to demand fluctuations and tailor their offerings to their customers).
• Forecasting and tools (Brunswick Bound uses a point of sale (POS) system to track sales and returns. The store also analyses past sales patterns alongside external factors such as holidays, school breaks, and popular cultural events, including celebrity book club picks. By observing these trends, Brunswick Bound can anticipate demand for new titles and plan their orders more effectively, ensuring they align with seasonal fluctuations and customer interests).
• Sustainability measures (overall, Brunswick Bound prefers firm sale deals with better margins, which reduces the risk of returns. They also conduct promotional activities, such as book events (themes, book clubs), and reach out to customers creatively. By treating poor selling titles as an opportunity for community engagement, the store aims to turn a dilemma into a marketing solution).
• Community and collaboration (Brunswick Bound is part of a collection of Melbourne bookstores that share sustainability efforts and co-hosts eco-events. The store is always trying to work with local and environmentally responsible publishers. This demonstrates collective action that booksellers can take at the localised level in the absence of hard data).

Analysis and implications

Brunswick Bound exemplifies a change in independent bookselling that moves away from return-based models. Although the bookstore does not use advanced technology, their conscious practice shows how traditional models can incorporate more responsible ways of operating and balancing profitability with sustainability. While the larger retailers may have predictive analytics and AI tools at their disposal, Brunswick Bound relies on POS data, a curated inventory, firm sale selections and community engagement. They therefore provide an important example for smaller bookstores wanting to practice more sustainable models without access to data resources, showing that smaller players can challenge the industry standard.

Findings

Collating a picture of the SoR model and its environmental impact in the Australian publishing industry reveals a number of challenges, including a lack of information and data sharing among key stakeholders. However, independent players such as Brunswick Bound demonstrate the validity of alternative models such as POS tracking and firm sale, which can be employed to promote more environmentally sustainable bookselling. Without hard data on the number of units returned and pulped or sent to landfill each year, it is difficult to know exactly where interventions would be most beneficial. Collective industry action, combined with legislation around reporting standards, would be an important step towards filing in the gap in industry knowledge around the environmental impact of the SoR model.

Here, we end with a suggestion of a range of individual and collective actions that the bookselling industry could undertake in order to reduce the environmental impact of the traditional SoR model:

• Adopt hybrid inventory models (including use of AI-driven forecasting tools to fine tune rolling stock management).
• Promote sustainable practices (promote firm sale deals and minimise returns to lessen environmental impacts, inline with the RISE bookselling guidelines).
• Invest in staff training (train bookstore staff to understand production data and customers’ decision-making processes).
• Foster community engagement (organise events and book clubs to reinforce ties between members of the community and to collect feedback on customers’ preferences).
• Collaborate with local publishers (partner with sustainably-minded publishers to fund sustainable supply chains).
• Collective, industry-wide reporting (units printed, units delivered, units returned and units pulped or delivered to landfills).
• Research or develop data (contracts between booksellers and publishers—including how many units purchased are sold and under which model).